How to read observed drop rates
What ForeverDB's percentages mean, why sample size matters, and how to tell a reliable rate from an early guess.
By ForeverDB editors · · 1 min read
Every percentage on ForeverDB is an observed drop rate: the number of observed loots that contained an item, divided by the number of observed loots from that source with that method.
Why it is not "the" drop chance
The addon can only count loot windows it sees. A completely empty corpse may never produce a loot record, which pushes observed rates upward. Treat the numbers as evidence, not as the game's internal value.
Sample size labels
| Label | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Too few samples | Rate hidden — not enough observations yet |
| Low sample | Shown rounded, e.g. "~40%" |
| Moderate sample | One decimal plus a 95% interval |
| High sample | Many observations; the interval is usually narrow |
The interval (for example 38.1–45.3%) is a Wilson score interval: the range the underlying rate plausibly lies in, given the sample.
Levels and methods are separate
A level 6 and a level 7 creature with the same ID are separate samples. Normal loot and skinning on the same creature are separate too. That is why one creature can appear several times on an item page.